[Course of disease and related epidemiological parameters of COVID-19: a prospective study based on contact tracing cohort].

Objective: To analyze the course of disease and epidemiological parameters of COVID-19 and provide evidence for making prevention and control strategies. Methods: To display the distribution of course of disease of the infectors who had close contacts with COVID-19 cases from January 1 to March 15, 2020 in Guangdong Provincial, the models of Lognormal, Weibull and gamma distribution were applied. A descriptive analysis was conducted on the basic characteristics and epidemiological parameters of course of disease. Results: In total, 515 of 11 580 close contacts were infected, with an attack rate about 4.4%, including 449 confirmed cases and 66 asymptomatic cases. Lognormal distribution was fitting best for latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period of confirmed cases and infection period of asymptomatic cases; Gamma distribution was fitting best for infectious period and clinical symptom period of confirmed cases; Weibull distribution was fitting best for latent period of asymptomatic cases. The latent period, incubation period, pre-symptomatic infection period, infectious period and clinical symptoms period of confirmed cases were 4.50 (95%CI:3.86-5.13) days, 5.12 (95%CI:4.63-5.62) days, 0.87 (95%CI:0.67-1.07) days, 11.89 (95%CI:9.81-13.98) days and 22.00 (95%CI:21.24-22.77) days, respectively. The latent period and infectious period of asymptomatic cases were 8.88 (95%CI:6.89-10.86) days and 6.18 (95%CI:1.89-10.47) days, respectively. Conclusion: The estimated course of COVID-19 and related epidemiological parameters are similar to the existing data.

[Epidemiological characteristics of local COVID-19 epidemics and control experience in routine prevention and control phase in China].

The COVID-19 pandemic is still ongoing in the world, the risk of COVID-19 spread from other countries or in the country will exist for a long term in China. In the routine prevention and control phase, a number of local COVID-19 epidemics have occurred in China, most COVID-19 cases were sporadic ones, but a few case clusters or outbreaks were reported. Winter and spring were the seasons with high incidences of the epidemics; border and port cities had higher risk for outbreaks. Active surveillance in key populations was an effective way for the early detection of the epidemics. Through a series of comprehensive prevention and control measures, including mass nucleic acid screening, close contact tracing and isolation, classified management of areas and groups at risk, wider social distancing and strict travel management, the local COVID-19 epidemics have been quickly and effectively controlled. The experiences obtained in the control of the local epidemics would benefit the routine prevention and control of COVID-19 in China. The occurrence of a series of COVID-19 case clusters or outbreaks has revealed the weakness or deficiencies in the COVID-19 prevention and control in China, so this paper suggests some measures for the improvement of the future prevention and control of COVID-19.

Impact of COVID-19 on the clinical status of patients with Wilson disease

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has greatly impacted health systems. Many guidelines on chronic liver diseases have been released to optimize the use of medical resources and patient management. However, most of these guidelines have been established through expert consensus because the existing data do not provide strong evidence for developing effective recommendations. As Wilson disease (WD) is a rare chronic liver disease, the impact of COVID-19 on the clinical status of patients with WD is unclear. The present study showed a marked shortage of medical resources for clinically managing patients with WD during the pandemic. Although patients with WD who consistently took anticopper therapy showed no significant differences in hepatic and extrahepatic markers before and after the pandemic, their complication incidences, especially the infection incidence, were significantly increased during the study period. Therefore, patients with WD should be encouraged to adhere to anticopper therapy and be closely monitored to prevent infections and other complications. The present study provides a clinical basis for further managing WD during the pandemic.

[Epidemiological characteristics of asymptomatic infection cases of COVID-19 in Guangdong province].

Objective: To analyze the epidemiological characteristics of the cases firstly reported as "asymptomatic infection of COVID-19" in Guangdong province. Methods: The follow-up observation method was used to continuously track and observe the cases firstly reported as "asymptomatic patients with COVID-19" in Guangdong province from January 14 to March 31, 2020. The epidemiological data of the cases were collected to analyze their epidemiological characteristics, outcome and influencing factors. Results: From January 14 to March 31, 2020, a total of 325 cases were firstly reported as "asymptomatic infections of COVID-19" in Guangdong province. The epidemic curve of asymptomatic infection cases was similar to that of confirmed cases, and it had two peaks. The first peak was from January 27 to February 5, and the second peak was from March 17 to March 26. Of the 325 cases, 184 (56.6%) were subsequently converted to confirmed cases. These cases were defined as incubation period asymptomatic infection cases. The age median of the cases was 40 years, and 93.5% (172/184) of the cases showed symptoms within 3 days after the first positive nucleic acid tests were conducted, and 141 (43.4%) of the 325 cases remained asymptomatic status until they were cured and discharged. They were inapparent infection cases, accounting for 8.6% (141/1 642) of those diagnosed with COVID-19 in Guangdong province during the same period. The age median of inapparent infection cases was 27 years. The median of the interval between the first positive nucleic acid test and discharge was 14 days. Up to 90.8% (138/141) of the inapparent infection cases were discharged for centralized medical observation within 28 days. The longest interval between the first positive nucleic acid test and the last positive nucleic acid test was 73 days. The positive rate of nucleic acid test was 0.3% in close contacts of inapparent infection cases and 2.2% in close contacts of incubation period asymptomatic infection cases. There were significant differences in age distribution and source of infection between incubation period asymptomatic infection cases and inapparent infection cases (P<0.05). Old age was the risk factor for the conversion of firstly reported asymptomatic infection cases to confirmed cases. Compared with the 0-19-year-old group, The patients aged 40-59 years and 60 years and above were more likely to become confirmed cases. The OR (95%CI) values were 2.730 (1.380-5.402) and 5.302 (2.199-12.783), and P values were 0.004 and 0.000, respectively. People being infected in China were more likely to become confirmed cases (OR=7.121, P=0.000). Conclusions: There were asymptomatic infection cases among patients diagnosed with COVID-19. The infectiousness of incubation period asymptomatic infection cases might be stronger than that of inapparent infection cases. The proportion of younger cases among asymptomatic infection cases was higher than that of the confirmed cases. Old age and domestic infection were the risk factors for the conversion of asymptomatic infection cases to confirmed cases, to which more attention should be paid. Further serological investigations are needed to provide a basis for the development of COVID-19 prevention and control strategies.

[Risk assessment and early warning of imported COVID-19 in Guangdong province].

Objective: To assess the imported risk of COVID-19 in Guangdong province and its cities, and conduct early warning. Methods: Data of reported COVID-19 cases and Baidu Migration Index of 21 cities in Guangdong province and other provinces of China as of February 25, 2020 were collected. The imported risk index of each city in Guangdong province were calculated, and then correlation analysis was performed between reported cases and the imported risk index to identify lag time. Finally, we classified the early warming levels of epidemic by imported risk index. Results: A total of 1 347 confirmed cases were reported in Guangdong province, and 90.0% of the cases were clustered in the Pearl River Delta region. The average daily imported risk index of Guangdong was 44.03. Among the imported risk sources of each city, the highest risk of almost all cities came from Hubei province, except for Zhanjiang from Hainan province. In addition, the neighboring provinces of Guangdong province also had a greater impact. The correlation between the imported risk index with a lag of 4 days and the daily reported cases was the strongest (correlation coefficient: 0.73). The early warning base on cumulative 4-day risk of each city showed that Dongguan, Shenzhen, Zhongshan, Guangzhou, Foshan and Huizhou have high imported risks in the next 4 days, with imported risk indexes of 38.85, 21.59, 11.67, 11.25, 6.19 and 5.92, and the highest risk still comes from Hubei province. Conclusions: Cities with a large number of migrants in Guangdong province have a higher risk of import. Hubei province and neighboring provinces in Guangdong province are the main source of the imported risk. Each city must strengthen the health management of migrants in high-risk provinces and reduce the imported risk of Guangdong province.

[Clinical outcomes of COVID-19 cases and influencing factors in Guangdong province].

Objective: To analyze the clinical courses and outcomes of COVID-19 cases and the influencing factors in Guangdong province and provide basis for the formulation or adjustment of medical care and epidemic control strategy for COVID-19. Methods: We collected demographic data, medical histories, clinical courses and outcomes of 1 350 COVID-19 patients reported in Guangdong as of 4 March 2020 via epidemiological investigation and process tracking. Disease severity and clinical course characteristics of the patients and influencing factors of severe illness were analyzed in our study. Results: Among 1 350 cases of COVID-19 cases in Guangdong, 72 (5.3%) and 1 049 (77.7%) were mild and ordinary cases, 164 (12.1%) were severe cases, 58 (4.3%) were critical cases and 7 (0.5%) were fatal. The median duration of illness were 23 days (P(25), P(75): 18, 31 days) and the median length of hospitalization were 20 days (P(25), P(75): 15,27 days). For severe cases, the median time of showing severe manifestations was on the 12(th) day after onset (P(25), P(75): 9(th) to 15(th) days), and the median time of severe manifestation lasted for 8 days (P(25), P(75): 4, 14 days). Among 1 066 discharged/fetal cases, 36.4% (36/99) and 1.0% (1/99) of the mild cases developed to ordinary cases and severe cases respectively after admission; and 5.2% (50/968) and 0.6% (6/968) of the ordinary cases developed to severe cases, and critical cases respectively after admission. In severe cases, 11.4% developed to critical cases (10/88). The influencing factors for severe illness or worse included male (aHR=1.87, 95%CI: 1.43-2.46), older age (aHR=1.67, 95%CI: 1.51-1.85), seeking medical care on day 2-3 after onset (aHR=1.73, 95%CI: 1.20-2.50) pre-existing diabetes (aHR=1.75, 95%CI: 1.12-2.73) and hypertension (aHR=1.49, 95%CI: 1.06-2.09). Conclusions: The course of illness and length of hospitalization of COVID-19 cases were generally long and associated with severity of disease clinical outcomes. The severe cases were mainly occurred in populations at high risk. In the epidemic period, classified management of COVID-19 cases should be promoted according to needs for control and prevention of isolation and treatment for the purpose of rational allocation of medical resources.